Election day 2022 recap: A good day for moderates

On Election Day, Americans elected 34 U.S. senators (with Georgia’s election going to a runoff), 435 U.S. representatives, 36 governors, and members of 88 of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers. They also voted on dozens of ballot proposals. Overall, the results were generally favorable for moderates. The U.S. Congress will be divided, with Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House. The governor races had very few surprises, with 18 Democrats and 18 Republicans winning elections. Similarly, state legislative races generally performed to expectations, with Democrats winning control of 36 chambers and Republicans winning control of 50 chambers.

U.S. Congress

Although we often associate divided government with gridlock, there is evidence that divided government actually outperforms expectations, while unified government generally underperforms expectations. Also, divided government has not been uncommon in recent years. Since 1980, we’ve had split control of Congress about one-third of the time and some form of divided government among the Presidency and the two houses of Congress about two-thirds of the time. Most importantly for our purposes, divided government produces more moderate policy outcomes than unified government.

Americans have mixed feelings about divided government. The table below shows the results of a YouGov poll conducted shortly after Election Day. Although pluralities of Democrats and Republicans prefer single party control of Congress, that likely means with their party in control; more Independents prefer divided control of Congress than single party control. And Democrats are the only group where more people think divided government is bad than think it is good.

Governors and state legislatures

It was an unusually active year for gubernatorial elections, with only 14 governorships not on the ballot. Of the 36 contested governorships, Democrats won 18 and Republicans won 18. More importantly for our purposes, “blue” states elected Democratic governors, “red” states elected Republican governors, and “purple” states had close races with party control changing in two states. There are 14 blue states where more than 50 percent of people voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020; 11 of those states elected governors this year and all of those states except Vermont elected Democrats. There are 22 red states where more than 50 percent of people voted for the Republican presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020; 14 of those states elected governors this year and all of those states except Kansas elected Republicans. Of the remaining 14 purple states, 11 elected governors this year, with seven electing Democrats and four electing Republicans. Four governorships changed parties this year, with two blue states (Maryland and Massachusetts) returning to Democratic governors and two purple states changing parties (Arizona from Republican to Democrat and Nevada from Democrat to Republican).

There are 99 state legislative chambers in the United States; all states have two legislative branches except for Nebraska, which has only one. Of those 99 chambers, members of 88 chambers were up for election on Election Day. Prior to Election Day, Republicans controlled 62 chambers and Democrats controlled 36, with shared power in Alaska’s House of Representatives. Of the 11 chambers that did not have members up for election, Democrats control 4 and Republicans control 7. In the elections, Democrats won control of 36 chambers and Republicans won control of 50 chambers. After the elections, Republicans will control 57 chambers and Democrats will control 40 chambers and one chamber (Alaska’s Senate) will have shared control, with control of Alaska’s House of Representatives still to be determined.

More importantly for our purposes, the state election results almost entirely fit their state profiles. The 14 blue states will all have legislatures controlled entirely by Democrats and 21 of the 22 red states will have legislatures controlled entirely by Republicans (with Alaska having shared control). Of the 14 purple states, six will have legislatures controlled entirely by Democrats, six will have legislatures controlled entirely by Republicans, and two will have split control of their legislatures.

Combined with the gubernatorial results, of the 14 purple states, five will have state governments controlled entirely by Democrats, three will have state governments controlled entirely by Republicans, and six will have some form of divided government. And the status of four of those 14 purple states changed after the elections, with Nevada moving from entirely Democratic control to divided government, Arizona moving from entirely Republican control to divided government, and Michigan and Minnesota moving from divided government to entirely Democratic control. In total, eight of the 14 purple states had divided government prior to the elections and/or will have it after the elections. In the remaining six purple states, Democrats have controlled all branches of government only since 2019 in three (Colorado, Maine, and New Mexico) and Republicans have controlled all branches of government only since 2020 in one (New Hampshire). There are only two purple states where one party has controlled all branches of government for longer than four years: Florida, which Republicans have controlled since 2011, and Georgia, which Republicans have controlled since 2005. In short, Democratic voters should be happy with the policy environment in almost all blue states, Republican voters should be happy with the policy environment in almost all red states, and moderate voters should be comfortable with the policy environment in most purple states.

Ballot measures

Ballot measures may either be initiated by citizens or referred by the state legislature or some other state body. Twenty-four states allow for some type of ballot measure, where citizens can collect signatures to place proposals for constitutional amendments or new statutes on the ballot. Of those 24 states, three allow ballot measures only for constitutional amendments, six allow ballot measures only for statutes, and 15 allow ballot measures for both. In addition to these measures to enact new laws, 23 states have some form of veto referendum, where citizens can initiate a ballot measure to determine whether to uphold or repeal a law passed by the state legislature or some other legislative body within the state. Depending on the state, the law may be suspended pending the outcome of the referendum.Voters in 38 states voted on a total of 132 ballot measures on Election Day. Of those 132 measures, voters approved 90 and rejected 42.

Of the 132 Election Day ballot measures, 28 directly involved some type of social policy and 11 involved some aspect of election law, which indirectly affects social policy and most other types of policy. Of those 39 measures, voters approved 28 and rejected 11. If a measure is rejected, it fails one of our key criteria for assessing social policy – social acceptability. So, we are generally not concerned about rejected measures. Approved measures, on the other hand, potentially have social acceptability concerns; we would not consider it ideal from a moderate policy perspective if 51% of voters in a purple state adopt a very liberal or very conservative policy. For approved measures, we consider three factors to assess social acceptability: (1) the nature of the measure, (2) the ideological makeup of the state; and (3) the vote result on the measure. Of the 28 approved measures, 18 satisfied all of these factors;  the other 10 were potentially concerning from a moderate policy perspective.

The table below summarizes the 18 approved measures that don’t present any moderate policy concerns in terms of social acceptability, using the summaries and vote results from Ballotpedia. (These measures may still present concerns on other policy analysis criteria, such as effectiveness, equity, or legal feasibility, but we do not consider those factors here.) All of these measures passed with at least 55 percent of people voting in favor and, in particular, did not involve liberal states passing liberal measures by small margins or conservative states passing conservative measures by small margins.

The other 10 approved measures are summarized in the table below. All of these measures were approved with less than 55% of people voting in favor of the amendment. Eight of these measures are of particular concern from a moderate policy perspective. Arizona, which is a purple state, passed two conservative measures with very small margins. Colorado, which is also a purple state, passed two liberal measures with rather small margins. Massachusetts, which is a very blue state, passed two liberal measures with rather small margins. And Oregon, which is a blue state, passed two liberal measures with very small margins. The other two measures are less concerning. First, Missouri passed a liberal measure with a rather small margin; however, Missouri is a red state. Second, Nevada passed an election-related measure with a rather small margin; however, that measure was not obviously liberal or conservative and Nevada is a purple state. Therefore, these last two measures are not examples of the majority imposing partisan policies on the minority. Overall, moderate voters should be disappointed with the ballot measure results from a social acceptability perspective in only four states: Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Oregon.

Conclusion

From a social policy perspective, moderate voters in most states should be satisfied with the election results. The U.S. Congress will have split control. There are only two purple states where one party will control all branches of government and that control has continued for more than four years. And there were only four states where voters passed partisan social policy or election-related ballot measures by narrow margins.