Social policy issues contributed to President-elect Trump’s victory, as his margin on immigration more than offset Vice President Harris’s margin on abortion
Most important issue for voters
Exit polls asked voters to choose which of five issues was most important to them. Two of those five issues were social policy issues: abortion and immigration. Of the five issues included in the poll, 14 percent of voters said that abortion was the most important issue and 11 percent of voters said that immigration was the most important issue.
How most important issue affected votes
Although only 25% of voters selected abortion or immigration as their most important issue, those voters had significant disparities in their vote preferences. Among the 14% of voters who selected abortion as their most important issue, 74% voted for Vice President Harris and only 25% voted for President-elect Trump. However, of the 11% of voters who selected immigration as their most important issue, 90 percent voted for President-elect Trump and only 9% voted for Vice President Harris. Multiplying those percentages through, abortion was associated with a 6.8% margin for Vice President Harris and immigration was associated with a 8.9% margin for President-elect Trump. Thus, if other voters had split evenly between the candidates, President-elect Trump would have won by 2.1%, which is similar to his current 1.7% margin.
Who voters trust more
Exit polls also asked which candidate voters trusted more to handle these social policy issues. Overall, 53% of voters said that they trusted President-elect Trump more to handle immigration, while 44% said that they trusted Vice President Harris more. Of the voters who trusted Vice President Harris more, 98% voted for her and 1% voted for President-elect Trump; of the voters who trusted President-elect Trump more, 90% voted for him and 7% voted for Vice President Harris. On abortion, 49% of voters said they trusted Vice President Harris more as compared with 45% for President-elect Trump. Of the voters who trusted President-elect Trump more, 96% voted for him and 2% voted for Vice President Harris; of the voters who trusted Vice President Harris more, 93% voted for her and 5% voted for President-elect Trump. Two conclusions are evident from these results. First, very few voters voted against their preferences on these social policy issues, as at least 90% voted for the candidate they preferred to handle each issue. Second, trust in these issues was highly correlated; voters who preferred one candidate to handle abortion almost always preferred that same candidate to handle immigration.
Policy preferences
The exit polls also asked voters about their policy preferences on these social policy issues. When asked whether most undocumented immigrants should either be offered a chance at legal status or be deported, 56% said they should be offered a chance at legal status and 40% said they should be deported. Among those who said they should be deported, 87% voted for President-elect Trump and 11% voted for Vice President Harris; among those who said they should be offered a chance at legal status, 75% voted for Vice President Harris and 22% voted for President Trump. These results indicate that a significant number of voters preferred Vice President Harris’s position on this particular immigration issue, yet trusted President-elect Trump more to handle immigration overall.
For the main exit poll question on abortion, 32% said it should be legal in all cases, 33% said it should be legal in most cases, 26% said it should be illegal in most cases, and 6% said it should be illegal in all cases. The following table shows the vote breakdowns for voters who expressed those preferences:
It’s more difficult to interpret these results, because the categories don’t clearly correspond to the candidates’ positions. It would have been more helpful if the exit poll had asked whether we should return to the national abortion policy that we had prior to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision or whether we should maintain the current situation of letting states set their own abortion policies. If anything, these results suggest that abortion is not an important issue for some voters, as 10% of voters who think abortion should be legal in all cases voted for President-elect Trump and 11% who think it should be illegal in all cases voted for Vice President Harris.
Conclusion
Exit polls addressed only two social policy issues – immigration and abortion – so it is impossible to consider the overall impact of social policy issues on the presidential election. Considering only those two issues, there are two primary takeaways from the exit polls. First, those issues appear to have contributed to President-elect Trump’s victory, as his margin with voters for whom immigration was the most important issue more than offset Vice President Harris’s margin with voters for whom abortion was the most important issue. Second, many voters who preferred Vice President Harris’s position on giving unauthorized immigrants a chance to remain in the country nevertheless trusted President-elect Trump more to handle the overall issue of immigration, contributing to his vote margin on that issue.
