Work requirements in the bipartisan debt ceiling bill

The SNAP and TANF work requirements in the debt ceiling bill have bipartisan support and may both increase employment rates among less vulnerable groups and reduce poverty rates among a few more vulnerable groups. However, the effects of the new work requirements on Black Americans, in particular, should be carefully monitored.

The recent bipartisan debt ceiling bill included new work requirements for two means-tested transfer programs, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The following table summarizes both the prior and new work requirements for those two programs. It is important to note that the SNAP work requirements apply to individuals, while the TANF work requirements apply to states.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the SNAP changes will cause about 78,000 more people to receive benefits in an average month and will increase SNAP spending by about $1.8 billion over the next ten years. It estimated that the TANF changes will reduce TANF spending by about $5 million over the next ten years; however, that estimate was based on an assumption that some states will not meet the new work requirements. It is difficult to know how states will actually respond to the TANF changes, but it is likely that significantly fewer people who do not work or participate in work-related activities will receive TANF cash assistance in most states.

What do we know about the effectiveness of work requirements

A 2022 CBO report reviewed existing research on the effects of work requirements in SNAP, TANF, and Medicaid on recipients’ employment and income. The requirements for Medicaid were not changed in the debt ceiling bill, so we will summarize their conclusions only for SNAP and TANF.

The CBO concluded that TANF work requirements have increased the employment rates of single mothers without education beyond high school by about five to ten percent. However, it estimated that those requirements have had little effect on the average incomes of those single mothers overall, because the increased earnings (and related increases in the Earned Income Tax Credit) for some single mothers were offset by decreases in cash assistance for others. Notably, because of work requirements and other changes made to TANF as part of welfare reform, the percentage of single mothers with no earnings from work or cash assistance increased from 0 percent in the mid-1990s to about 15 percent in 2019.

The CBO concluded that SNAP work requirements have increased the employment rates of ABAWDs between the ages of 45 and 49 by 1 to 4 percent and have probably had a similar or slightly larger effect on younger adults without dependents. However, it reasoned that SNAP work requirements have probably had smaller employment effects than TANF work requirements because most SNAP recipients do not receive intensive case management services, as TANF recipients do. The CBO concluded that SNAP work requirements have reduced average incomes for ABAWDs overall, because far more adults lost benefits than the number who experienced earned income increases; it cited studies from three states finding that work requirements had reduced the number of ABAWDs receiving benefits by 22 to 53 percent.

So, along with reductions in federal spending on the programs, SNAP and TANF work requirements have probably resulted in small increases in employment rates for groups that principally benefit from those programs. But they have also resulted in lower average incomes and higher poverty rates for those groups. Therefore, the effectiveness of work requirements depends on the goals of the SNAP and TANF programs. If they are meant to be temporary support programs that incentivize people to return to self-sufficiency, work requirements can promote that goal. However, if they are meant to be poverty alleviation programs, work requirements can frustrate that goal. The TANF program actually has both goals, as two of its four statutory goals are to “provide assistance to needy families so that children may remain in their homes” and to “end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits through work, job preparation, and marriage.” However, the SNAP program’s only statutory goal is to “permit low-income households to obtain a more nutritious diet … by increasing food purchasing power for all eligible households who apply for participation.” Therefore, while work requirements are partly effective in promoting TANF’s goals, they are ineffective in furthering SNAP’s goal.

Of course, the debt ceiling bill did not just add work requirements, it also added new exemptions from SNAP work requirements for veterans, homeless people, and young adults who aged out of foster care. Due to these exemptions, the number of SNAP recipients and federal SNAP spending will actually increase. So, the debt ceiling bill may have reached a compromise that will increase employment rates among less vulnerable groups, while also reducing poverty rates among the newly exempted groups, and may be somewhat effective in promoting the goals of the TANF and SNAP programs discussed above.

How do Americans feel about work requirements

While the debt ceiling bill was being negotiated, Axios/Ipsos polled Americans on their attitudes about work requirements. Nearly two-thirds of all Americans said they supported requiring Medicaid or SNAP benefit recipients to show proof of work to receive benefits. That support nearly carried across parties, with 80 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of Independents, and 49 percent of Democrats agreeing with that idea. The poll did not ask about TANF work requirements, but public opinion for that program would likely be similar to opinion for Medicaid and SNAP. The Center for Excellence in Polling, which is a conservative polling group associated with the Foundation for Government Accountability, also conducted a poll on work requirements. It found that 67 percent of likely voters (including 58 percent of Democrats) supported work requirements for food stamps and 73 percent (including 63 percent of Democrats) supported work requirements for cash assistance. Those percentages should probably be viewed cautiously in light of the conservative orientation of the group, but it is notable that slightly more people favored work requirements for cash assistance than for food stamps. Therefore, it seems likely that about two-thirds of Americans favor work requirements for TANF and SNAP, including about half of Democrats.

Again, though, the debt ceiling bill also added new exemptions from the SNAP work requirements for some groups. Those exemptions would likely make the bill’s work requirements more popular with Democrats and less popular with Republicans. No polls have been conducted specifically on the work requirement changes included in the debt ceiling bill. A Reuters/Ipsos survey regarding the debt ceiling bill as a whole, which included much more than just the work requirement changes, found that 87 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Independents, and 65 percent of Republicans were satisfied with or neutral towards the final bill. In the Congressional votes, 92 percent of Senate Democrats, 78 percent of House Democrats, and 68 percent of House Republicans voted for the final bill, but only 35 percent of Senate Republicans voted for it.

Equity considerations

TANF and SNAP recipients are not representative of Americans as a whole. The following tables show breakdowns of TANF and SNAP recipients by race/ethnicity and sex, as compared with all Americans.

The tables show that TANF recipients are disproportionately Black, Hispanic, and female, while SNAP recipients are much more likely to be Black and slightly more likely to be female than the general population. Therefore, we need to be a little careful about interpreting polls of all Americans, even when broken down by party affiliation. It is also important to consider how the groups that are overrepresented in these programs feel about work requirements. The polls on work requirements discussed above were not broken out by race or ethnicity. However, NAACP President Derrick Johnson sent an open letter to Congress during the debt ceiling negotiations advocating against any new work requirements for means-tested transfer programs: “Proposals to change eligibility requirements such as adding new work requirements must be resoundingly rejected. These proposals are designed to play on racist stereotypes masquerading as sound policy.” Even with the new exemptions from the SNAP work requirements, the NAACP continued to oppose the final debt ceiling bill. Conversely, the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce issued a press release after the debt ceiling deal was reached applauding the deal and urging Congress to quickly pass it.

Legal considerations

The new work requirements included in the debt ceiling bill do not present any Constitutional concerns and should not be subject to any serious legal challenges.

Conclusion

The debt ceiling bill added new work requirements for SNAP and TANF, but it also added new exemptions from the SNAP work requirements for certain groups. This compromise may be effective in increasing employment rates among less vulnerable groups, while decreasing poverty rates among the newly exempted groups. However, the effects of the bill on Black Americans, in particular, should be carefully monitored, because Blacks are overrepresented in both programs. The new work requirements should not have any legal concerns and they probably are supported by majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.

Our grades for the debt ceiling bill work requirements:

Effectiveness: B+

Equity: C

Legal Feasibility: A

Social Acceptability: A-

Overall: B+